A Kiwi Blogs From London

It’s not pretty. Basically, Network TV is going to be dead by 2020 in at least the top 3 English-speaking markets.

A state-funded BBC/ABC model is now the only way forward, because very soon we won’t be able to afford to produce scripted content by selling advertising. Basically, TV1 (at least) needs to be completely nationalised... Even merged with NatRad. Not too sure what this means for NZ On Air.

Essentially, NZ needs to get as close to a BBC model as possible... Watch the first video on my blog post to find out why... If only to safeguard independent journalism.

This needs to be put on the agenda now, because the global TV content market is going to atomise very quickly, and NZ doesn’t have the money/infrastructure to replace it minute-for-minute with good domestic content. If you think you see a lot of Everybody Loves Raymond now... Well, you just wait. There will be very little left to buy, which, of course, means more repeats... Which means no audience.

And no audience means no profit for TVNZ, which means the delightful Mr. Key will sell it for a song in his second term... My guess would be to Fox/Sky – further reducing NZ’s diversity of media ownership.

Once it’s gone, that’s it. It’s not like buying back a railroad. Private companies have more efficient cost structures – they’ll merge the operation so that it can never be unpicked.

Think I’m overreacting? Can we really afford to find out? Advertising is the canary in the mine that is the global economy. And she ain’t singing right now. Not in London, not in New York... Not in Auckland.

Anyway, feel free to quote me on this. Not because I’m quote-worthy... Because I think it’s a discussion we all need to have.

Well, Gosh! If these aren’t just the most interesting times.

G O R D O N W H I T E

Blog: www.smallscreens.org